Staying true to his campaign rhetoric, Trump has effectively decided to kill the Paris Climate Accord. Essentially ending government support for future innovation in the American economy. The move seems to be an attempt to bring back the dying American coal industry, despite the lack of evidence that pulling out will do just that. That’s because it’s hard to ignore that the cost of clean energy is plummeting in comparison to coal, making it more affordable to consumers.
Additionally, according to most “reputable” economists climate change will begin to have a net negative impact on the global economy (the median estimates say by 2025 is when the full effects will be felt). The economic sectors that would be most affected unsurprisingly include Agriculture (94% ) Fishing (74%) Tourism (72%) Insurance (66%) and Health Services (54%). And the United States could’ve used a overhaul of it’s current economic climate policy by further incentivizing corporations and individuals to innovate by bolstering the American economy while at the same time curving pollution. Logically this is what will most likely help those disenfranchised by the economic collapse of the coal industry. A new industry equals new jobs for those effected by the coal decline. And a business oriented mind such as Trumps should easily recognize the economic benefits of going “green” namely: Incentivizing business by providing a revenue-neutral carbon tax, which enables a head start in a new and emerging market, and the creation of more jobs through a “going green” infrastructural overhaul.
But instead Trump has decided to go a different route by pulling out of the Paris Accord. Was it to satisfy constituents by fulfilling his campaign promises? Or perhaps to distract from the scandals going on in the White House(?) Whatever the reason the fact remains that the Trump Administration has pulled out as the symbolic administrative leader of the global climate initiative. And in effect an unsuspecting “green alliance” has been forged to combat the looming global climate crisis.
The European Union and China have agreed to fill the vacuum left by the USA as the leaders of innovation amidst the climate crisis. A week after Trump announced his withdrawal from the Paris Accord, China and the EU met in Brussels to talk about the future of their climate policies. The two parties (for the first time ever) are now in agreement “to forge ahead” with measures to “lead the energy transition” towards a global low-carbon economy. Specifically by committing to cut back on fossil fuels, developing more green technology, and jointly working to raise $100 billion a year by 2020 to help poorer countries cut their emissions. This “green alliance” seems to be calculated response to the Trump administrations protectionist economic framework. After all the EU and China’s agreement seem to be in the favor of free trade, economic growth and innovation, while at the same time combating the climate change epidemic. A stark contrast to Trump’s crony and isolationist economic tactics. Furthermore, China has committed to a plan to develop 150 gigawatts of solar energy by the end of the decade, the EU is leading in wind power energy and recently France (via Macron) has additionally incentivized scientists and business leaders alike to come to France, in order to “work on concrete climate solutions”. As of now the EU is the leader for positive climate policy implementation and China is well on it’s way towards that path. And this new green alliance will only seek to economically and environmentally improve both regions.
However there is a silver lining. Despite the Trump Administration withdrawal from the Paris Agreement top American business leaders are still working towards the global climate initiative. CEO’s from Apple, ExxonMobil, Jp Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and most notable Elon Musk (who left the President advisory council after the decision)were ALL in dissent after Trumps withdrawal. Yes that’s right! natural gas companies and big financial firms AREN’T in favor of the decision and will continue to uphold the Paris Accord’s framework. Nick Atkins (CEO of American Electric Power, Coal company) had this to say “(T)his gets a lot of questions from investors, we get a lot of questions from customers, that … want renewable energy solutions, clean energy solutions. And we at AEP want to be as benign to the environment as we can”. However, these businesses could’ve used additional tax incentives by going with clean energy (allowing for further economic growth) and Trump had the power to help. He clearly chose not to.
The majority of the American population doesn’t agree with Trumps withdrawal either, according to a recent Washington Post- ABC news poll that says 59 percent oppose the move. Having said that several states have formed a bipartisan group committed to upholding the Paris Accord, called the United States Climate Alliance. Among the members are New York and California, huge economic influencers. If the USCA was a country it’d be 4th in terms of GDP. Providing hope for the future. After all the President’s decision doesn’t matter if the societal collective refuses to obey.
EDIT: While I wrote this the US Ambassador to China David Rank resigned because of Trumps Climate withdrawal
Sources: “Expert Consensus on the Economics of Climate Change” by the Institute for Policy Integrity, NYU School of Law.
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